Russia is reportedly making preparations for a potential military confrontation with the West within the next decade, according to Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service. The agency suggested that a counter build-up of armed forces could serve as a deterrent to Russia's actions.

Several Western officials have also expressed concerns about a military threat from Russia toward NATO's eastern flank and have called for Europe to consider rearming in response. The chief of Estonia's intelligence service cited Russian plans to double the number of forces stationed along its border with NATO members Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia as a basis for the assessment. He stated that Russia appears to have chosen a path of long-term confrontation and may be anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade.

However, the intelligence chief also noted that a military attack by Russia is considered "highly unlikely" in the short term, partly due to the need to maintain troops in Ukraine. He emphasized that the likelihood of such an attack would be reduced if there were adequate preparation and a matched buildup of forces in Europe. In response to these perceived threats, Estonia and other Baltic States have increased their military spending to over 2% of their economies' value since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. Additionally, NATO allies have bolstered their presence in these countries.