Stephen Nix, the Senior Director for Eurasia at the International Republican Institute

The death of political prisoner Alexei Navalny, the most prominent face of Russia’s political opposition movement, was far from unpredictable. Yet it was shocking all the same. Whether or not he was outright murdered or died as a result of the conditions he faced in prison, there can be no doubt that the Putin regime is responsible for his death. 

As the Kremlin continues its brutal war of aggression in Ukraine and efforts to destabilize the global democratic world order, the damage Putin has wrought upon his own people is sometimes forgotten. Navalny’s death must be treated as an inflection point, prompting aggressive new steps by the U.S. and other democracies in support of Russia’s persecuted democratic opposition. Russia’s reversion to murderous autocracy has been underway for two decades, starting with the arrest and imprisonment of Putin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once one of Russia’s wealthiest and most powerful men. Putin has deployed high profile political assassinations for almost as long. There was a turning point in 2006 with the poisoning of defector Alexander Litvinenko in the heart of central London. 

In 2015, Boris Nemtsov, a charismatic politician and former vice premier and Security Council member, was gunned down in the shadow of the Kremlin. Nemtsov had assumed that his position as a high-profile former member of the Russian government would protect him from assassination. His murder shattered that illusion for other prominent critics of Putin’s government. Today, another brave opposition leader sits in a Russian prison with supporters fearing for his life. Vladimir Kara-Murza was convicted of treason last year and sentenced to 25 years in prison. The political activist and journalist had previously survived two poisoning attacks before being sent to jail, and his recent secret transfer to another prison raised the alarm among supporters concerned for his well-being. Opposition politician Ilya Yashin was arrested in 2022 and sentenced to more than 8 years in prison on charges of spreading false information about Russian soldiers. Yevgeny Roizman — the former mayor of Yekaterinburg and one of the last prominent opposition figures who is not in prison — is still on trial after nearly a year on charges of “repetitively discrediting the armed forces” fighting in Putin’s war on Ukraine. Liberal opposition politician Leonid Gozman, the former leader of opposition political party Union of Right Forces, fled Russia to escape several politicized arrest warrants and other charges. In November 2023, former Deputy Energy Minister and fellow opposition leader Vladimir Milov was sentenced to eight years in absentia on a charge of distributing false information about Russian armed forces involved in the invasion of Ukraine.

With Navalny’s death, the message to other dissidents is clear: Shut up, or you’ll be next. The message to the international community is just as stark: We will continue to act with impunity both within and outside of our own borders, and we dare you to do anything about it.

Yet to anyone familiar with Russian politics — or indeed with the machinations of any dictatorship — it’s clear that Putin has been acting out of fear. This is a weakness that freedom fighters and their international allies must be ready to exploit. Democratic opponents of Putin’s regime expose the lies around which his dictatorship is structured, and point out the destruction he has wrought to satisfy his own greed for money and power. At 71 years of age, Putin’s power is based on his personal relationships and authority. He has no chosen successor and no strong or institutional party apparatus to allow for elite consensus. Security forces have been positioned to counter and monitor each other to prevent them from becoming hubs of resistance from which a replacement could come out of.

Meanwhile, the elite, including the military leadership and oligarchs, are unlikely to want to rule over a Russia bogged down in a losing war against Ukraine, isolated from the rest of Europe and opportunities to enrich themselves.

The opportunity for political change will likely come sooner than conventional wisdom would suggest. As Kara-Murza has argued, “change will come…abruptly and unexpectedly. None of us knows the specific moment and specific circumstances, but it will happen in the foreseeable future. The chain of events leading to these changes was started by the regime itself [with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine] in February 2022. It’s only a matter of time.” Russia’s freedom fighters are doing their utmost to prepare for that day. When it arrives, the democratic world has an interest and responsibility in ensuring that these pro-democracy forces are ready to step up and lead the country on a path to genuine reform.

Accordingly, the U.S. and our democratic partners must do everything in their power to highlight the plight of Russia’s political prisoners and demand their release; to push back on Russian aggression and influence operations, in Ukraine and elsewhere; and to provide political, diplomatic, and financial support to Russia’s pro-democracy forces, both those inside the country and those in exile.

“If they decide to kill me,” Navalny once remarked, “then it means we are incredibly strong and we need to use that power and not give up.”
This brave man had every chance to escape Russia and live in exile, yet he chose to return to his home country, knowing he would, at best, live out his days in a penal colony, and at worst, die at the hands of the state. The free world must honor his legacy by heeding his words and standing up to Putin.